Blog - Wendy M. Doerzbacher

NAHB: Rising Demand for Homes Boosts Builder Confidence

November 18, 2020 by Wendy Doerzbacher

NAHB: Rising Demand for Homes Boosts Builder Confidence Builder confidence in housing market conditions reached a new record high in November according to the National Association of Home Builders. November’s index reading of 90 was five points higher than in October. Index readings over 50 indicate positive builder sentiment toward market conditions. Readings for the Housing Market Index fell below 50 in April and May as the COVID-19 pandemic grew.

Component readings for the Housing Market Index rose six points to 96 for current housing market conditions and one point to 89 for builder confidence in home sales in the next six months. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments rose three points to 77. Readings for buyer traffic typically didn’t exceed 50 until recently. High demand for homes is associated with record-low mortgage rates and changing priorities created by the pandemic.

While demand for homes usually slows in the colder months, the pandemic has caused families to re-evaluate their housing needs as more people work from home and children attend school online or are homeschooled. Larger homes cost more, which contributes to home sellers moving to suburban or rural areas to accommodate the additional expenses of buying and maintaining larger homes.

Regional Housing Market Conditions Mixed in November

The NAHB reported gains in builder confidence in three of four regions. The Midwest led with a nine-point increase in builder confidence. The South and West also showed rising builder confidence, but builders in the Northeast reported a five-point drop in builder confidence.

Robert Dietz, chief economist for the NAHB said, “In the short run, the shift of housing demand to lower density markets such as suburbs and exurbs along with ongoing low resale inventory levels is supporting demand for home building.” Rising demand for homes as compared to low numbers of pre-owned homes available is creating additional demand for new homes.

Analysts said that the demand for new homes will last for quarters or years as it will take time for builders to catch up with the unusually high demand for single-family homes.

A seasonal slow-down in home sales coupled with a new and severe wave of COVID-19 cases may cause challenges for home builders in the coming months, but the current demand for homes could rise if city-dwellers continue to move to less congested areas. Recent positive news about COVID-19 vaccines could impact flight from cities to suburbs, but government approval, manufacture, and distribution of vaccines can’t happen immediately.

A Late Payment: Credit Score Impact

November 17, 2020 by Wendy Doerzbacher

A Late Payment: Credit Sore Impact This has been a difficult year for everyone. There are a lot of people who are worried that they might not be able to keep up with their mortgage payments. Small businesses have had to close their doors and numerous individuals have been laid off from work.

It is important for homeowners to understand that banks do not want people to foreclose on their homes either. Therefore, they are often willing to work out an alternate payment plan with homeowners who are struggling due to dire financial situations. Those who are late on a mortgage payment might be wondering how this is going to impact their credit score. The answer is that it depends.

How Does A FICO Credit Score Work?

Someone’s credit score is a conglomeration of multiple factors including payment history, the amount of money owed, the length of the credit history, and new credit. A late or missing mortgage payment is only going to impact one of these categories. Unfortunately, this also happens to be the largest factor, making up more than a third of the total credit score.

A Late Mortgage Payment

First, it is important for everyone to know that a late payment is not going to impact someone’s credit score until it is late by more than a month. At the same time, people need to remember that the lender can still access a late fee. If someone has a high credit score with a long credit history, this late payment is not going to hurt as much. On the other hand, someone with a poor credit score and a short credit history might feel the sting a little bit more.

Furthermore, it is important for people to note that a payment that is late by 60 or 90 days is going to hurt someone much more than a payment that is late by just one month. Therefore, even if a payment is going to be late, people should still try to pay it as early as possible.

Protect The Credit Score

It is important for everyone to try to do everything they can to protect their credit score. If they are worried they are not going to be able to make a mortgage payment, they should let the lender know and see what their options are.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 16, 2020

November 16, 2020 by Wendy Doerzbacher

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 16, 2020 Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Board members addressed economic expectations resulting from the COVID-19.

Chair Powell said that there would be no quick fix for the economy and that the economy would suffer for four to six months until the pandemic slows. He also said that a COVID-19 vaccine would not be a panacea for the virus and said that “ the next few months could be challenging” as the virus spreads at a faster pace.

Inflation Stalls as Pandemic Progresses

The Commerce Department reported no growth in the Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index in October. The readings for both indices were identical with 0.00 percent growth, 0.10 percent growth expected, and September’s month-to-month growth of 0.20 percent. Medical experts predicted that COVID-19 cases would surge as cooler weather arrived.

The cost of living rose from June to October, but this was a recovery from deep dips in consumer prices as the pandemic took hold. The year-over-year inflation rate slowed to 1.20 percent in October from September’s reading of 1.40 percent. Annual inflation was growing by 2.30 percent before the pandemic.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by six basis points to 2.84 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.34 percent and rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages jumped by 22 basis points to 3.11 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 709,000 filings. Analysts expected 731,000 new jobless claims based on the prior week’s reading of 751,000 initial jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims were also lower last week with 6.79 million continuing claims filed. as compared to the prior week’s reading of 7.22 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index posted a lower reading of 77.0 in November as compared to October’s index reading of 81.6 percent and the expected reading of 82.3. The dip in the Consumer Sentiment Index reflected increased consumer concern as covid-19 cases rose,

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department reporting on housing starts, and building permits issued. Data on sales of previously-owned homes will also be reported.

NAHB: Rising Demand for Homes Boosts Builder Confidence

A Late Payment: Credit Score Impact

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 16, 2020

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